Dollar Index

On Wednesday, the dollar index fluctuated around 99.4, and is expected to fall nearly 5% in April. The dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, helped by the Trump administration's plan to ease the blow of auto tariffs on local automakers and the prospect of more tariff agreements between the United States and some trading partners. The dollar also benefited from month-end buying, as investors sought to rebalance their portfolios after President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs led to a massive sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds in April. Trump will issue an executive order mid-week to combine tariff offsets with other parts and materials tariff reductions to mitigate the impact of auto tariffs, after automakers put pressure on the government. The dollar was boosted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant saying the government is making substantial progress in tariff negotiations and pointing to the imminent agreement with India and South Korea. He said he will talk with at least 17 trading partners in the coming weeks.

From the daily chart, the dollar index showed a slight intraday gain around 99.20, although the overall trend remains bearish. The price action is trapped between 98.90{weekly low} and 99.47{15-day moving average}. Momentum is mixed, with the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) giving a buy signal, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in negative territory around 37.20, and the Ultimate Oscillator (50.06) remains neutral. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages all suggest bearish continuation. This confirms additional downward pressure. Resistance levels are located at 99.47{15-day moving average}, 99.84{weekly high}, and 100{market psychological level} areas. As for the downside, the 98.90{weekly low} can be watched respectively, once it is broken, it will open up further downward space to the 97.91{previous low} level.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 99.55, stop loss: 99.70, target: 99.10, 99.00

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand.

WTI crude oil futures fell 3.25% on Wednesday to close at around $58.0 per barrel, marking the biggest monthly drop since the end of 2021, down 18%, mainly due to concerns about global oversupply and weak demand. Saudi Arabia hinted at increasing production and regaining market share, putting pressure on prices, while OPEC+ was reportedly considering further increasing production at its May 5 meeting, sparking market concerns about a renewed price war. US-China trade tensions have further exacerbated uncertainty in the demand outlook, coupled with the contraction of the US economy in the first quarter and a sharp drop in consumer confidence. Despite the bearish sentiment, an unexpected drop of 2.7 million barrels in US crude inventories last week helped limit further losses.

After rebounding from a four-year low of $54.78 (April 9 low), oil prices once again tried to rise but failed, repeatedly undermining the 50.0% Fibonacci rebound level of 63.38 of the 71.98 to 55.78 decline and breaking below $61.35 {38.2% Fibonacci rebound level}. This generates a new bearish signal and strengthens the short-term bearish outlook as bears target $60.00 {market psychological level}. A clear break below $60 will turn the short-term situation negative and indicate the end of the correction phase. It will test $57.66 {April 8 low}, and $54.78 {April 9 low} downward. On the contrary, a close above the key $60.00 level would ease the current downside risk and put oil prices on track for a healthy correction, with the first resistance at $61.35 {38.2% Fibonacci rebound from the 71.98 to 55.78 decline}. The next level would be $62.07 {9-day moving average}.

Consider going long on crude oil near 57.80 today, stop loss: 57.60; target: 59.40; 59.60

Spot gold

Gold prices fell during the North American trading session on Wednesday, after hitting a daily high of $3,328. Data on the contraction of the U.S. economy sparked speculation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Gold traded near $3,290, close to the current low of the week. On April 30, Beijing time, as signals of easing trade tensions reduced some safe-haven demand, the purchase price has recently stabilized near 3,300, while investors are waiting for key economic data this week to judge the Fed's policy outlook; Gold fell nearly 1% on Tuesday as signals of easing trade tensions reduced some safe-haven demand, while investors are waiting for key economic data this week to judge the Fed's policy outlook. The easing of trade tensions has led to a sell-off in safe-haven gold, a traditional hedge against rising global instability. Last week, gold hit a record high of $3,500 per ounce with an unprecedented rally. Investors are now focusing on important U.S. economic data this week, including the monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

The upward trend in gold prices remains intact, but in the past five trading days, gold has been consolidating in the range of $3,260 to $3,386, failing to break through the $3,200 or $3,400 mark. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart technical indicator remains near 60, and the momentum remains bullish, but the slope of the index is declining towards the neutral line. This shows that neither buyers nor sellers are in a dominant position. If gold falls below $3,300 {market psychological level}, and $3,299.70 {Tuesday's low}, the next support level will be the low of April 23 at $3,260, followed by the round mark of $3,200. Conversely, if gold breaks through $3,353 {this week's high}, the next resistance level will be the $3,366-3,368 area, followed by the round mark of $3,400.

Consider going long on gold before 3,285 today, stop loss: 3,280; target: 3,320; 3,325

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose on Wednesday after falling more than 0.50% against the US dollar in the previous trading day. AUD/USD appreciated as Australia and China released key economic data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% month-on-month in the first quarter of 2025, higher than the 0.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeding the market's expectations of a 0.8% increase. Australia's monthly CPI remained stable in March, up 2.4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, in line with expectations. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, below the consensus of 49.9, indicating another contraction. The Australian dollar faces headwinds as global trade uncertainty continues to affect investor sentiment.

AUD/USD hovered around 0.6400 on Wednesday, with the daily chart reflecting a bullish outlook. While the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remained above 55, both indicating continued upward momentum. The pair continues to trade above the 14-day simple moving average at 0.6375. On the upside, the recent four-month high of 0.6449, which was reached on April 29, is an immediate resistance. If it breaks through this level, it may open the door for a rebound towards 0.6462 {200-day moving average}, and 0.6500 {round mark}. On the other hand, the 14-day simple moving average at 0.6375 acts as an immediate support, followed by the 50-day simple moving average at 0.6302, and the 0.6300 {market psychological mark} area level.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6388, stop loss: 0.6380, target: 0.6430, 0.6440

GBP/USD

On Wednesday (April 30), the British pound fell 0.62% to 1.3325 against the US dollar, down from 1.3405 in the previous trading day. GBP/USD traded slightly higher around 1.3405 in early Asian session on Wednesday. Weak US economic data dragged the dollar lower. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday indicated that US job openings fell to 7.19 million in March, the lowest level since September 2024, from a revised 7.48 million in February. The data was lower than the market expectation of 7.50 million. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 86.0 in April. This data hit the lowest level since April 2020. Weak US labor demand and sentiment data have heightened concerns about economic momentum and increased uncertainty, which weakened the US dollar and provided a tailwind for GBP/USD. On the other hand, rising market expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at its May policy meeting may limit the upside of the pound.

GBP/USD retreated to near 1.3330 after hitting a three-year high of 1.3445. The overall outlook for the currency pair remains bullish as all short- to long-term exponential moving averages are trending upwards. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart fell to 60.00. On the upside, 1.3400 {round mark} is the first resistance level, and the next level will be 1.3445 {three-year high} will be the key obstacle for the currency pair. Looking down, 1.3300 {market psychological barrier}, followed by 1.3253 {April 24 low} will serve as the main support area.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the pound before 1.3315, stop loss: 1.3300, target: 1.3350, 1.3360

USD/JPY

The yen continued to maintain a negative bias against its US counterpart on Wednesday, for the second day, as positive risk sentiment seemed to weaken demand for traditional safe-haven assets. US President Trump signed an order to mitigate the impact of new tariffs on the automotive industry, which, together with signs of further trade agreements, boosted investor confidence. In addition, disappointing domestic data is another factor that put pressure on the yen. However, any meaningful yen depreciation seems elusive as traders may choose to remain on the sidelines ahead of the crucial two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting that begins today. The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Thursday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in response to the risks of US tariffs on the fragile economy. However, rising inflation in Japan opens the door for further BoJ policy normalization, which in turn should provide support to the yen.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY found support above 142.50 earlier this week and encountered rejection near 144.00. Nonetheless, it would still be wise to wait for some follow-through selling before further selling below 142.50 emerges. The spot price could accelerate its decline towards the 141.00 intermediate support area. The downside trajectory could extend further to the 140.50 intermediate support level before the pair finally falls to a multi-month low below the 140.00 psychological mark hit last week. On the other hand, the 143.00{round mark} area may act as an immediate resistance, and once it is broken, short-term covering may push the USD/JPY pair to the next relevant resistance level of 143.40-143.45. A sustained strong break above the latter will allow the spot price to conquer the 144.00 round mark.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 143.18, stop loss: 143.30; target: 142.30, 142.00

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, EUR/USD fluctuated around 1.1330. The dollar fell slightly against the euro due to weaker-than-expected US economic data. As investors weigh different economic signals from the United States and Europe. The US economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2025, mainly due to businesses and consumers accelerating imports in anticipation of Trump administration tariffs. In contrast, the eurozone economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.4%, driven by strong domestic demand. Among major economies, Germany grew by 0.2% as expected, while France underperformed, growing by just 0.1%. On the inflation front, Germany's headline inflation slowed to 2.1% in April, but core pressures rose, while France's annual rate remained at 0.8%. Despite weak inflation, the euro is still expected to rise by more than 5% against the dollar this month as uncertainty over US trade policy continues to erode sentiment towards US assets.

From the daily chart, the broader technical signals still suggest upside potential. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is at a neutral reading {57.30}, while the MACD is giving a sell signal, but the bullish bias remains reinforced by the upward-aligned moving averages. The average directional index (ADX) reflects neutral trend strength around 51, while the Stochastic RSI remains around 16, suggesting that bearish momentum is not yet dominant. On the positive side, the bullish structure remains intact as the 20-day; 100-day; and 200-day simple moving averages are all pointing upwards. Further reinforcing the upside trend. Support is around 1.1300{round mark}. If the correction continues, it may fall to 1.1264{April 15 low}. Although short-term signals may suggest some hesitation, as long as the currency pair remains above the key support area above 1.1400, the broader technical framework still favors a bullish extension to 1.1425{this week's high}. A breakout points to 1.1500{round mark}, and 1.1573{April 21 high} area levels.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.1315, stop loss: 1.1300 target: 1.1360, 1.1370.

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